Laying Plans

W War is the great affair of the state. It is the ground of life and death, the road to survival or ruin. So you cannot fail to study it. Sun Tzu said: War is the great affair of the state — the ground of life and death, the way of survival or ruin. It cannot but be examined.

Five things measure it. Weigh them, work the numbers, and you know where you stand. The moral cause. Heaven. Earth. The general. Method. So gauge it by five factors, set them against your calculations, and seek out the true situation: first the moral cause, second Heaven, third Earth, fourth the general, fifth method.

The moral cause is what puts the people of one mind with their ruler — so they will die with him, live with him, and never flinch from danger. The moral cause is what makes the people share one mind with their ruler, so that they will die with him and live with him, and not fear danger.

“All warfare is deception.”

Heaven is the weather and the seasons — light and dark, cold and heat, the turning of the year. Earth is the ground — far and near, broken and open, wide and narrow, the places that kill and the places that keep you alive. Heaven is the dark and the light, cold and heat, the order of the seasons. Earth is far and near, steep and level, wide and narrow, the deadly and the safe.

The general is judged on five things: wisdom, credibility, benevolence, courage, strictness. The general means wisdom, trustworthiness, benevolence, courage, and strictness.

Method is the organization — the chain of command, the supply lines, the cost of keeping an army in the field. Every general has heard of these five. Know them and you win. Miss them and you lose. Method is the organization of units, the order of command, and the control of supply. All five of these every general has heard; the one who knows them wins, the one who does not know them does not win.

So measure both sides by calculation, and ask the true questions. Which ruler holds the moral cause? Which general is abler? Which side has the weather and the ground? Whose discipline holds? Whose army is stronger, whose troops better drilled? Who rewards and punishes with a clear hand? Run those seven, and I can tell you who wins. So set both sides against your calculations and seek the truth of it. Which ruler holds the moral cause? Which general has ability? Which side gains from Heaven and Earth? On which side are command and discipline carried out? Which army is stronger? Whose officers and men are better trained? On which side are reward and punishment clear? By these I know victory and defeat.

Heed these plans and act on them, and you will win — so keep that commander. Ignore them and you will lose — so be rid of him. The general who heeds my calculations and uses them will surely win — keep him. The general who does not heed my calculations and uses them will surely lose — dismiss him.

Once the calculation is settled in your favor, build momentum from it — the loaded edge that works outside the rules. Momentum is this: you read the advantage, then bend the situation to seize it. When the calculation is heeded, make of it a force to aid you beyond the ordinary. This force is shaping the balance of control according to the advantage.

All warfare is deception. When you can strike, look unable. When you move, look still. When you are near, seem far; when far, seem near. War is the way of deception. So when able, show inability; when active, show inaction; when near, show distance; when far, show nearness.

Dangle bait to draw him in. Throw him into disorder, then take him. If he is solid, prepare for him. If he is stronger, slip away. Anger him into rashness. Act humble, and let him grow proud. Wear him out when he rests. Split him when he is united. Lure him with the prospect of gain. Throw him into confusion and seize him. If he is solid, be ready for him. If he is strong, avoid him. Goad him to anger. Bow low, and make him arrogant. If he is at ease, wear him out. If he is close-knit, divide him.

Hit him where he is not ready. Show up where he does not expect you. This is how the strategist wins, and it cannot be settled in advance. Attack where he is unprepared; appear where he does not expect. This is the strategist's victory, and it cannot be passed on beforehand.

Before the fighting, the side that wins has already won the counting — it has run more calculations. The side that loses has run fewer. More counting wins. Less counting loses. And none at all? Watch the reckoning, and you will see who falls. Before battle, the one who wins in the temple reckoning has made many calculations; the one who does not win has made few. Many calculations win, few calculations do not win — how much less none at all. By this I watch it, and victory or defeat is plain.

始計 The original Chinese · honored as an artifact

兵者，國之大事，死生之地，存亡之道，不可不察也。

Opening lines, classical Chinese · The Art of War 孫子兵法